loading

+

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN INDIA

Renewable energy sector has boomed in India. Wind energy is the largest contributor to renewable in India and is chasing a volume of 30GW+ , announced for commissioning in next four years. Solar has also grown quite fast and has reached 34.40 GW as of Feb 2020. C&I is also growing slowly but steadily with approx. 18 GW which is equal to the 10% of the C&I demand.

In the last decade, this scale of activity attracted multinational utilities, investors and supply chain players to India’s renewable market. An influx of capital and supply chain initiated a downward slide in prices, with levelized cost of energy  (LCoE) of wind declining by 40% from 2015 to 2019.

However, the opportunity does not come without its challenges. Renewable energy sector in India is undergoing a process of transition to merit based procurement, with transformation impacting not only the supply side projects and their competitiveness, but also in buyer side preferences and procurement capabilities.

The high degree of ambiguity around market volumes and its characteristics has created significant risks for the market participants, which if not managed proactively, could lower business IRR.

Wind sector in India is expected to reach 60 GW by 2022 and 100 GW by 2030. At the same time, initial steps have been taken to explore offshore wind. MEC Intelligence (MEC+) has detailed insights into the domestic market and potential for using India as a global export hub. Read some of our latest insights:

Onshore Wind in India

India is the world’s fourth-largest onshore wind market by installations and has 37.5 GW of wind capacity as of 2019. India’s government is targeting 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, of which 60 GW will come from wind energy, and a whopping 450 GW by 2030, of which 140 GW will be wind-based generation.

Despite high capacity targets for wind energy in India and its strong cost-competitiveness, new installations in the Indian wind market have declined by 50% in 2018 and 2019. The government conducted auctions for more than 7.7 GW of capacity in 2019, of which only 2.4 GW was subscribed, remaining were either unsubscribed or, canceled/abandoned after being awarded.

The market is expected to be lumpy in the next three years due to supply and demand realities. Due to this market uncertainty, installation outlook varies between 48-54 GW by 2023, against the target of 60 GW.

The high degree of ambiguity around market volumes and its characteristics has created significant risks for the market participants, which if not managed proactively, could lower business IRR.

MEC Intelligence (MEC+) has collaborated with GWEC to write about the status of the Indian wind market and its likely trajectory for 2022.

We have released the India Wind Outlook 2022 report jointly with Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) to understand the realistic volume expectation in India towards 2022. The report discusses the challenges faced by the sector and the need for immediate policy reforms to revive the stalled wind market.

We held a couple of webinars to unpack the key findings from the report and discuss growth scenarios for the wind power industry in India. We also addressed the key questions of the industry. You can read the highlights of both the webinars here.

For more interesting reads around India renewable energy sector, visit Insights

Offshore Wind in India

India makes an attractive offshore wind market due to aggressive and dedicated targets, visible pipeline and supportive market design. Despite its attractiveness, the market is in a catch-22 situation because of the pricing expectation for power procurement.

QVARTZ and MEC Intelligence (MEC+) have published a report which explores the case for sustainable growth in the pipeline for offshore wind projects and also helps industry players resolve dilemmas around entering into an attractive yet nascent offshore market in India. Download the teaser

C&I Solar

Nearly, 6.3 GW of C&I solar is installed in India as of March 2019, onsite installation contribute nearly 47%, while offsite installations contribute nearly 53%. Even though offsite market (Open Access) was allowed in 2003, the market picked up in post 2014 after solar costs became feasible. Onsite market on the other hand opened post 2016, after introduction of net metering regulations by multiple states.

Essential notes on Indian Energy-Newsletter series of MEC Intelligence (MEC+)

In the newsletter, MEC Intelligence (MEC+) shares best research notes on latest developments in the Indian energy policy, profitability, and possibilities. This will inform you about the fundamentals of the market and elaborate on the questions on top of your mind. Do follow if you are interested.

+

OUR EDGE

MEC Intelligence (MEC+) has a deep understanding of linkages between various moving parts of the Indian electricity market, through which we deliver robust market intelligence.

The industry has been using simplistic trend-analysis, derived from historical trends, short-term order-books and market sentiment to drive strategic decision-making. This exposes the participants to the risks discussed above.

MEC Intelligence (MEC+) uses a holistic approach for delivering intelligence, utilizing our extensive work experience in India and in-depth knowledge of the India energy market. We establish linkages among 20+ parameters to produce insights that can directly feed into the pipeline, supply chain, and R&D decisions. This is actionable, fact-based and unbiased insight for the client.

Intelligence which is fact-based, bottom-up and multidimensional, offers advantages to the client in the form of:-

  • A transparent understanding of markets drivers and inhibitors
  • Proactively understanding impact of any change on market volume
  • Actionable insights with information on geographical deployment, wind class, players; providing most relevant intelligence

Our offerings in India include:

MERIT ORDER ANALYSIS

  • LCOE modelling for wind, solar Hybrid wind-solar plants
  • LCoE sensitivity
  • State-wise competitiveness of RE and Non-RE supply

MARKET FORECASTS

  • Reliable, bottom-up forecasts
  • Break-down of forecasts by state, player, wind class
  • DISCOM-RE budgeted capacity, procurement, and RPO target
  • PSU/Captive/Corporate Demand

COMPETITITOR LANDSCAPE

  • Building exhaustive pipeline data
  • Pipeline segmentation
  • Competitor site resource/ grid connectivity analysis

MERGER AND ACQUISITION STRATEGY

  • Target Identification
  • Commercial Due Diligence
  • Leveraging Synergies
  • Exit Strategy

SUPPLY CHAIN STRATEGY

  • Current vs future supply chain needs by geography
  • Inorganic supply chain developments- M&A or partnerships
  • Supplier intelligence
  • Cost based for footprint planning

PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP

  • Long-term market product needs
  • R&D roadmap of competition
  • State of art technology assessment
  • Cost based for footprint planning

SELECTED EXAMPLES OF ADVISORY PROJECTS THAT MEC HAS DELIVERED FOR ITS CLIENTS IN THE WIND SECTOR