Development activity and orders continue to progress as per trend

9.1 GW of capacity tendered across SECI and state auctions were pending for installation in Jan 2021. MEC+ forecasted a base case scenario of 3.1 GW capacity (including C&I projects) to be installed within 2021 as per the timeline extensions taken by various projects. As per the proprietary MEC+ asset tracker, installations are expected to be in the range of 2.3 GW by December 2021 and can further go up to 2.6 GW by March 2022. These are higher than the low case scenario forecasted by MEC+ which is 2 GW.

The commissioning that has happened until Q3 2021 includes:

  • Renew Power’s commissioning of projects from SECI 2 and SECI 3 auctions
  • Alfanar’s commissioning of SECI 3 project
  • Progressive commissioning by SPRNG and Continuum for SECI 4 projects
  • Additional commissioning on Engie’s SECI 6 project
  • Adani’s and Softbank’s progress SECI 6 projects

Major development was seen on SECI 6 projects which can be attributed to the higher tariff discovered in the SECI 6 auctions in the range of INR 2.7-2.8 per unit. Among the state tenders, commissioning activity has been only in Gujarat’s second wind tender.

The major projects which seem to miss 2021 commissioning timeline are projects won by Enel in SECI 4, Alfanar’s and EDF’s SECI 5. The key reasons for the delay seem to be:

  • Uncertainty of commercialization of projects from SECI 3 and 4
  • Delays in transmission capacity or issues with ROW and COVID related bottlenecks

As per MEC+ proprietary asset tracker, the EDF project from SECI 5 seems to be moving ahead for commissioning by March 2022 while there is limited progress visible on the projects from Alfanar and Enel so far.

Keeping in line with activity trends, 1200 MW auction was conducted for wind-based power projects (SECI XI) in Sep 2021. This was preceded by a Hybrid Tranche 4 auction for 1200 MW in August 2021. Both the tenders were fully subscribed. As of now, there is no active RfS for wind projects. To read our full forecast, please read the MEC+ GWEC report on India Wind Outlook 2021 MEC+ and GWEC Report – India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2025 | MEC + (mecintelligence.com)